Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| O/U 41.5 | 83% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| O/U 45.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 72% |
| O/U 47.5 | 71% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 71% |
| Auburn O/U 27.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| O/U 49.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 65% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| O/U 51.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Auburn O/U 30.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -30.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Auburn Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -11.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 44% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Spread -14.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| Spread -16.5 | 34% |
| Spread -15.5 | 31% |
| O/U 63.5 | 31% |
| Spread -17.5 | 30% |
| Spread -18.5 | 28% |
| O/U 65.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| O/U 67.5 | 25% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Auburn | 24% |
| Spread -0.5 | 23% |
| O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| Spread -23.5 | 19% |
| Spread -24.5 | 17% |
| O/U 73.5 | 16% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -27.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 24% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T20:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $172K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Vanderbilt vs. Auburn" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →