Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 96% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| O/U 208.5 | 92% |
| O/U 210.5 | 91% |
| O/U 212.5 | 87% |
| O/U 214.5 | 84% |
| O/U 216.5 | 81% |
| O/U 218.5 | 78% |
| O/U 220.5 | 75% |
| O/U 222.5 | 71% |
| O/U 224.5 | 67% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Race to 10 | 65% |
| Race to 20 | 65% |
| O/U 226.5 | 63% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 228.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 230.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 232.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 233.5 | 49% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| James Harden: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| O/U 234.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| O/U 236.5 | 42% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers | 41% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 238.5 | 39% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 34.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 34.5 | 37% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Race to 30 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 36% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5 | 26% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 23% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 44.5 | 19% |
| Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| O/U 250.5 | 18% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 17% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 252.5 | 15% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 15% |
| Spread -11.5 | 14% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 254.5 | 12% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 256.5 | 10% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| O/U 258.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 7% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 7% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -24.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| O/U 260.5 | 6% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -26.5 | 5% |
| Spread -32.5 | 5% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -28.5 | 4% |
| Spread -30.5 | 4% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Spread -23.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 26 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $318K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →