Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 96% |
| O/U 23.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 88% |
| O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 35.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 59% |
| O/U 41.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Raiders vs. Saints | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| O/U 47.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 29% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 53.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 55.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: raiders vs. saints 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $321K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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