Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 88% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| O/U 29.5 | 86% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 33.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| O/U 35.5 | 71% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 37.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 38.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| O/U 39.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 41.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 42.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 46.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -0.5 | 36% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| O/U 49.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 51.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 15% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| O/U 67.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: eagles vs. bears 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15PM ET: If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the ga…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $361K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Eagles vs. Bears auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Eagles vs. Bears" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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