Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 81% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Eagles O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 40.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| Eagles O/U 18.5 | 54% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Eagles O/U 15.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Eagles O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 38% |
| Commanders O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Commanders O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | 32% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 55.5 | 19% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| Commanders O/U 28.5 | 16% |
| O/U 57.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Commanders vs. Eagles. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 32% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-13T20:25:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $103K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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