Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 81% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 72% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 71% |
| O/U 34.5 | 70% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 62% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 18% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Seahawks vs. Broncos. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 56% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-16T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $596K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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